Data story: Is public spending keeping up with a growing population?
The national budget grew 17% in two years; the population about 6%
Uganda's approved budget rose from UGX 72.18 trillion in FY 2024/25 to UGX 84.39 trillion in FY 2026/27: about UGX 1.7 million per resident. Local governments, which run primary schools, health centres and local roads, receive UGX 6.83 trillion of central funds in FY 2026/27, about UGX 137,844 per person.
- Budget FY 2026/27: UGX 84.39 trillion (approved, all votes)
- Per resident: UGX 1.7 million (projected mid-year population)
- Budget growth a year: 7.8% (FY 2024/25 to 2026/27)
- Local governments: UGX 6.83 trillion (4.6% a year since FY 2023/24)
What comes next: FY 2029/30 if both trends continue
At 7.8% a year the budget would reach about UGX 106.70 trillion in FY 2029/30, roughly UGX 2.0 million per resident. Two years is a short trend: one large loan, election year or refinancing changes it, and inflation (3.8% in FY 2025/26) eats part of every increase.
How this was worked out: Approved budgets (MoFPED workbooks; FY 2026/27 local governments from Budget Speech Annex 4, own revenue removed for a like-for-like comparison with FY 2023/24). Growth rates are averages between the years shown and are carried forward unchanged; population is the census trend at each fiscal year's midpoint. Not a fiscal forecast.
More data stories
- Population growth: How fast is Uganda growing, and where will the next 15 million people live?
- Cities and crowding: Are Uganda's cities filling up, or the districts around them?
- A nation of children: How young is Uganda, and what happens when today's children grow up?
- Four Ugandas: How different are Central, Eastern, Northern and Western Uganda, and which is pulling ahead?
- Where pressure builds: Which districts will feel the squeeze of growth first?
- The basics gap: How many Ugandan homes still lack grid power, safe water or a decent toilet?
- Offline Uganda: How many Ugandans are online, and how do the rest get their news?
- The jobs wave: Half of young adults are not in work or school. How many more are coming?
- Room in the classroom: How many children are out of school, and how many more seats will be needed?
- Sharing a clinic: How many people share each health facility, and how many more are needed by 2030?
- How near is the state?: Where are the police stations, courts and public offices, and who has none nearby?
Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), National Population and Housing Census 2024 (final results, drill-down tables). Published on Pearl Insights (https://pearl-insights.org), an independent civic data platform, not an official government website.