Data story: Which districts will feel the squeeze of growth first?
13 more districts pass 500 people per km² by 2034 if growth holds
32 of 146 districts and cities in Uganda already have 500 or more people per square kilometre. The heaviest new load falls on Kampala City, Wakiso, Obongi: at their 2014-2024 pace each adds more than 420 people per km² by 2034. Fast growth on top of density is where roads, water, schools and land planning fall behind first.
- 500+ people per km²: 32 (districts and cities, 2024)
- Same in 2034: 45 (if 2014-2024 growth holds)
- Most new people per km²: Kampala City (+1,866 per km² by 2034)
- Growth a year: 2.9% (Uganda, 2014-2024)
What comes next: Crossing the 500 per km² line
Next to cross, at their own 2014-2024 growth rates: Yumbe, Ibanda, Butaleja, Bunyangabu, Obongi, Bugiri, Luuka, Namayingo, Butambala, Mitooma, Pallisa, Ngora and others.
How this was worked out: Trend projection by Pearl Insights, not an official UBOS projection: the average annual growth rate between the August 2014 and May 2024 censuses is carried forward unchanged. The range shows the same rate 0.5 percentage points lower and higher. Real growth will differ as birth rates, migration and refugee arrivals change. Each district's own rate is applied to its 2024 population on fixed 2024 boundaries and area.
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Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), National Population and Housing Census 2024 (final results, drill-down tables). Published on Pearl Insights (https://pearl-insights.org), an independent civic data platform, not an official government website.