Data story: How young is Uganda, and what happens when today's children grow up?
49.6% of Uganda is under 18
22.7 million children and teenagers were counted in Uganda in 2024. There are 83.8 children and older people for every 100 people of working age, households average 4.2 people, and 43.1% of people have their birth registered (11.4% with a full certificate).
- Under 18: 49.6% (22.7 million people)
- Dependency ratio: 83.8 (aged 0-14 and 65+ per 100 aged 15-64)
- Household size: 4.2 (10.7 million households)
- Birth registered: 43.1% (11.4% hold a certificate)
What comes next: Today's children, tomorrow's adults
This is not a projection but arithmetic on ages. By 2031, all 6.8 million of today's under-fives are of primary-school age. By 2042, every one of today's 22.7 million under-18s is an adult, before deaths and migration. Fewer are coming behind them: women had about 7 children each until 2002, 5.8 in 2014 and 4.5 in 2024, and UBOS expects 3.6 by 2030 and 3.0 by 2040.
How this was worked out: Cohort counts from the 2024 census age groups, moved forward in time. Deaths and migration reduce the real numbers somewhat; births after 2024 are not included.
More data stories
- Population growth: How fast is Uganda growing, and where will the next 15 million people live?
- Cities and crowding: Are Uganda's cities filling up, or the districts around them?
- Four Ugandas: How different are Central, Eastern, Northern and Western Uganda, and which is pulling ahead?
- Where pressure builds: Which districts will feel the squeeze of growth first?
- The basics gap: How many Ugandan homes still lack grid power, safe water or a decent toilet?
- Offline Uganda: How many Ugandans are online, and how do the rest get their news?
- The jobs wave: Half of young adults are not in work or school. How many more are coming?
- Room in the classroom: How many children are out of school, and how many more seats will be needed?
- Sharing a clinic: How many people share each health facility, and how many more are needed by 2030?
- How near is the state?: Where are the police stations, courts and public offices, and who has none nearby?
- Follow the money: Is public spending keeping up with a growing population?
Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), National Population and Housing Census 2024 (final results, drill-down tables). Published on Pearl Insights (https://pearl-insights.org), an independent civic data platform, not an official government website.