Data story: Are Uganda's cities filling up, or the districts around them?
Uganda's cities grew more slowly than the country. The districts around them did not.
9.2% of Uganda's people (4.2 million) live in its 11 cities. City populations grew 2.1% a year since 2014, against 2.9% overall; Wakiso alone added 1.4 million people.
- Living in cities: 9.2% (4.2 million people in 11 cities)
- City growth a year: 2.1% (vs 2.9% for Uganda)
- Most crowded: Kampala City (9,219 people per km²)
- Districts over 500/km²: 32 (of 146)
What comes next: Cities in 2034 if each keeps its pace
At their 2014-2024 rates, Uganda's cities would hold about 5.2 million people in 2034, 8.4% of the total. Unless cities expand their boundaries or grow faster, more and more of the urban growth lands in the districts around them.
| Year | If the trend holds | Range |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 4.8 million | 4.6 million to 4.9 million |
| 2034 | 5.2 million | 4.9 million to 5.5 million |
| 2040 | 5.9 million | 5.4 million to 6.4 million |
How this was worked out: Trend projection by Pearl Insights, not an official UBOS projection: the average annual growth rate between the August 2014 and May 2024 censuses is carried forward unchanged. The range shows the same rate 0.5 percentage points lower and higher. Real growth will differ as birth rates, migration and refugee arrivals change. City boundaries are those of the 2024 census; new cities or boundary changes are not modelled.
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- Sharing a clinic: How many people share each health facility, and how many more are needed by 2030?
- How near is the state?: Where are the police stations, courts and public offices, and who has none nearby?
- Follow the money: Is public spending keeping up with a growing population?
Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), National Population and Housing Census 2024 (final results, drill-down tables). Published on Pearl Insights (https://pearl-insights.org), an independent civic data platform, not an official government website.